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发表于 2019-10-27 13:43:47 |显示全部楼层
作为一个新人,我发现要看到更有用的帖子,必须权限要高,所以我每看一个帖子,都会顶一下,这样权限就慢慢的高了
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发表于 2019-10-27 13:44:23 |显示全部楼层
作为一个新人,我发现要看到更有用的帖子,必须权限要高,所以我每看一个帖子,都会顶一下,这样权限就慢慢的高了
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发表于 2019-10-27 22:05:11 |显示全部楼层
谢谢楼主分享
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发表于 2019-10-31 21:19:09 |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2019-11-2 08:45:13 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2019-11-2 08:46:37 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2019-11-2 08:47:16 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2019-11-2 08:48:42 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2019-11-14 20:17:31 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2019-11-15 00:47:35 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2019-11-25 09:06:47 |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2019-11-28 02:58:59 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2019-12-11 01:28:33 |显示全部楼层
中证上市杯认为未来在降成本稳增长真正出效果之前,中证上市杯还了解到央行可能还会有若干次的调降,中证上市杯发现而其调降幅度由于要“警惕通胀预期的扩散”、“主动维护好少数几个常态型货币政策国家的地位”,可能会相对有限。
国泰,上海交通大学技术经济学硕士,耶鲁大学工商管理学博士。18年金融从业经验。曾任职于美国硅谷银行,担任资讯部分析师;后回国发展,担任申银万国证券研究所高级研究员,海通证券研究所高级研究员、海通证券资产管理部研究策划部顾问。2012年加入中证基金,历任研究部行业首席分析师、研究部执行总经理、研究部运营负责人、投行委能源化工组执行总经理、经发管委执行总经理等职。现担任投资银行部董事总经理,兼任中证鼎利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金(LOF)的基金经理。
在11月上旬央行调降MLF利率之后,OMO利率在今天也随之下调了5BP。消息出来后,国债期货合约直线拉涨,涨幅最高一度飙升至0.47%。
在MLF调降后,我们曾经认为:因为调降MLF的利率是为了引导LPR下行,而OMO是资金利率的锚,对LPR的影响不大,调低引导资金利率下行,会扩张市场的套息空间,诱导金融机构加杠杆行为。
所以在短期内,央行不会调整OMO,而会选择压缩OMO与MLF之间的利差,来达到降成本与防风险的双重目标。
这种分析,现在反思来看,
1)低估了稳增长在央行货币政策目标中的重要性与位序,稳增长可能在现阶段央行货币政策的首要任务。
从10月份的PMI创下今年2月份以来新低,新增社融弱于季节性,工业增加值、消费和固定资产投资均低于预期等宏观经济指标来看,现在实体经济的增长动能依然偏弱。
加上全球经济的弱势与地缘**的影响,新增专项债发行(宽财政)迟迟不见,经济下行的压力有所加大。
而2020年又是全面建成小康社会的最后一年,国民生产总值和人均收入翻一番的目标要实现,需要央行货币政策的配合,三季度货币政策执行报告中,央行提出要“加强逆周期调控的力度”可能正是此意。
2)忽视了OMO利率调整后可能带来的传导效应。引导LPR下调不能仅靠调整MLF利率,想办法降低银行的负债成本,并施以政策压力,推动银行降低信贷利率,可能才是更可持续的手段。
LPR的下调说到底,还是要想办法把银行的负债成本降下来,让银行有动力去压缩LPR与MLF之间的利差。
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发表于 2019-12-11 17:34:30 |显示全部楼层
还能下载么
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发表于 2019-12-16 05:58:00 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2019-12-16 19:36:08 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2020-1-9 17:49:03 |显示全部楼层

还能下载么。
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发表于 2020-1-9 17:49:34 |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2020-1-15 01:33:07 |显示全部楼层
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